Pathway to 2030: Transform the Heat Sector Through Energy Efficiency, Electrification, and Oil-to-Gas Conversion

Sep 5, 2018 8:25 AM ET
Table 1: Electricity, Transport, and Heat Transitions in the National Grid Pathway

Posted from National Grid's 80x50 Pathway

Achieving the 2030 target economically implies dramatic reduction in the reliance on the most expensive and polluting heating fuels: fuel oil, propane, and kerosene. This entails a rapid transition from these fuels to heat electrification, reaching 28% electrification of residential space heat by 2030 through a mix of air- and ground-source heat pumps (see Table 1). By 2030, roughly 3.85 million homes are envisioned to be utilizing heat pumps, requiring an average annual rate of conversion of almost 300,000 homes and businesses. Today, adoption rates are more than 10 times lower, around 25,000 per year. Oil-to-gas conversions, which achieve GHG reductions of over 27% per home, will also need to accelerate over the period, bolstered by investment in growing the regional supply of renewable natural gas.

In contrast with warmer climates like California, heating contributes more to regional GHG emissions, and also occupies a large share of Northeast customers’ total energy expenses. Accordingly, the Northeast heating transition requires scaling up energy efficiency investment, with a concerted focus on tightly insulating residential and commercial buildings. Table 1 summarizes the renewable electricity, transportation, and heating transitions envisioned in the Pathway. 

To see the full version of National Grid’s Northeast 80x50 Pathway, please visit  

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National Grid (LSE: NG; NYSE: NGG) is an electricity, natural gas, and clean energy delivery company that supplies the energy for more than 20 million people through its networks in New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. It is the largest distributor of natural gas in the Northeast. National Grid also operates the systems that deliver gas and electricity across Great Britain. 

National Grid is transforming its electricity and natural gas networks to support the 21st century digital economy with smarter, cleaner, and more resilient energy solutions. Read more about the innovative projects happening across our footprint in The Democratization of Energy, an eBook written by National Grid’s US president, Dean Seavers. 

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